Neocloud stocks & GPU pricing tracker
CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN pricing power tracked in real time: GPU rental rates, $/MW contracts, convertible raises, and what neocloud capital costs mean for the stocks.
neocloud stocks list · neocloud companies to watch · CoreWeave pricing · GPU rental rates
| Date | Event | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| 9/17 | CoreWeave short-term contracts | ~$40M/MW annualized, contracted power 3.7→4.2GW |
| 9/17 | Nebius rate hike notice | on-demand GPU rates up from 10/1 |
| 9/19 | CoreWeave convertible priced | $3.7B (upsized) at 2.875% due 2033 |
| 9/19 | Nscale files for NYSE IPO | up to $35B valuation; $44.6B Anthropic contract |
| 9/18 | Nscale S-1 (NYSE) | contracted pipeline passes $100B per filing coverage; $44.6B Anthropic; 25k deployed / 461k contracted |
| 9/20 | Bloomberg: Big Tech AI guarantees | up to $300B extended over the past year to finance AI DCs/chips — off balance sheet |
| 9/20 | Anthropic IPO timing (reported) | Oct → Nov; Q2 revenue >$11.5B vs Q1 $4.7B; ~$2T valuation, up to $100B raise eyed; OpenAI to 2027 |
| 9/21 | Nscale F-1 publicly filed (NYSE) | >$103B contracted backlog, ~85% Microsoft+Anthropic; Fortune flags going-concern language + $3B Nvidia note; up to $35B valuation |
| 9/21 | SoftBank $11B junk bond launched | replaces $10B OpenAI bridge, funds next tranche; pricing ~9/24 — first public-debt grade of OpenAI credit |
| 9/21 | Anthropic IPO update | NYT: moving ahead; Reuters: weighs new model ahead of IPO; FT Lex: $2T "not far-fetched"; Coinbase opens retail IPO access |
| 9/22 | Model-layer price war | Anthropic Opus 5.5 ($4/$20, -20% vs Opus 5) and OpenAI GPT-6 Sol/Luna ($2/$10, $0.10/$0.50 — 50% cuts) shipped 90 min apart, 10 days after the slowdown call |
| 9/22 | SoftBank $11B junk bond early book | over $20B preliminary demand (~2x covered); pricing ~9/24; total OpenAI commitment approaching $65B |
| 9/22 | CRWV convertible settled at $4.2B | $500M option exercised in full, 2.875% due 2033; same-day sell-side split: Rothschild Redburn Sell $54 vs Evercore ISI $150 |
| 9/22 | Anthropic IPO timing (WSJ) | confirmed delayed ~1 month (Oct → Nov); Forbes flags employee 10b5-1 plans |
| 9/23 | SoftBank $11.1B priced | USD tranches ~9-10% (3.5/5.5/7.5yr), EUR mid-8%; book >2x ($20B+); settles 9/29, funds the third $10B OpenAI tranche on 10/1; 9984.T opened +7% on Tokyo's reopen (last +3.6%) |
| 9/22-23 | Anthropic 1GW direct-lease talks | The Information: talks with Apollo-backed Stream Data Centers — labs internalizing the DC layer; 20-30MW site hunting continues (DCD) |
| 9/23 | Connect: Muse take-rate | first explicit agent-commerce pricing model (small fee on transactions); Amazon blockade (event 9/21) escalates into an open standoff; Stripe/Shop Pay/PayPal rails |
| 9/23 | Crusoe × Thinking Machines Lab | compute deal signed — mid-size labs emerging as a new buyer class |
| 9/24 | NBIS Oct 1 rate card quantified | H100 +17% / H200 +20% / B200 +19% / B300 +21% — second hike in three months; the compute-pricing-power thesis gets SKU-level contract numbers |
| 9/24 | JPMorgan upgrades CRWV (OW, $125) | premium short-dated contracts add 5-10pp to contribution margins; contracted power 3.1GW (end-25) -> 4.2GW (8/11); counter-case: IREN -1.9% on Rothschild Neutral $40 (5GW power base vs AI revenue capital gap) |
| 9/24 | Nscale F-1: ByteDance = 75% of sales | second concentration layer on top of 85% backlog concentration (MSFT+Anthropic); IPO pricing = the concentration-discount read |
| 9/25 | Friday: neocloud consolidation | CRWV -2.8% $87.59 / NBIS -2.5% $237.33 / IREN -4.4% $44.12 after Thursday's JPM-upgrade pop — no company news; post-FM financing sentiment keeps pricing the leveraged-builder discount; EQIX -2.6% |
| 9/25 | MSFT Copilot agent super-app | biggest Copilot overhaul: Autopilot Agent, Code Builder, Home Hub, built-in Office, unified enterprise context + AI-spend management; +3.7% to the year-high close $516.17 — the application layer's answer to token deflation (distribution, not price) |
| 9/28-10/6 | NVDA board adds $150B buyback (AP) | cumulative authorization $235B — the self-funded pole of the two-class AI market; stock still -10.5% from the 10/6 peak into the October credit shock |
| 10/1 | NBIS rate hikes effective | second increase in three months went live as notified; no public retention data since — acceptance unmeasured; NBIS -38.5% from Aug peak on sector credit |
| 10/14 | CoreWeave straight bonds ~15% yield | stock -15.5% on the day (Musk 'Yikes'; Chamath 'private credit bubble'; CEO: market 'acting irrationally'); new borrowing plans spooked bondholders further; -42% from the 8/17 peak ($61.39 on 10/16) |
| 10/15 | Gartner + Goldman reframe | Gartner: most neoclouds won't survive independently; Goldman publishes 'why neoclouds are being pounded' explainer — the sell-side frame switches to 'two classes of AI assets' |
| 10/14-16 | Anthropic roadshow repricing | roadshow started 10/14 (pre-Thanksgiving target, ~$110B run-rate pitch relayed); by 10/15-16 multiple reports: investors weigh $1.5T vs $2T as revenue growth slows — the private anchor moves |
| 10/16-17 | Primary-market stress, leg two | Bloomberg Credit Weekly: CoreWeave woes risk shutting the AI junk market; NYT 'Weak Links Start to Show in A.I. Borrowing'; Nscale Glomfjord 6 months late (leaks+fire) vs $103.4B contracts/55MW live, ~$35B NSCL target; Firmus $5B float scrapped 10/9, AirTrunk $1.5B paused; Dan Ives: 'clear buying opportunity' vs Eisman recession warning |
| 10/14-17 | Anthropic roadshow, the numbers | Q3 revenue $16.8B (+45% QoQ vs +145% prior); investors weigh ~$1.5T vs $2T (Reuters byline); November listing, ticker ANTP; New Constructs fair value $144B; FTC subpoenas OpenAI+Anthropic 10/15 (consumer-protection probe, Axios) |
| 10/18-20 | Nscale two-sided week; credit leg hardens | Microsoft exits Nscale UK Essex project over power ('in the 2030s' grid warnings; Telegraph/SiliconANGLE); Bloomberg/TNW: investor pushback on ~$30-35B IPO valuation; same week Bloomberg/CNBC: Anthropic in talks for a SECOND $45B compute deal (atop $44.6B/460MW). Credit: CRWV CDS >1,000bps (10/14 relay), CDS trading surges across CRWV/ORCL/SoftBank (FT); CNBC: 'stock investors ready to move on, credit investors are not'; HSBC reiterates bearish CRWV (intraday -4% Tue, closed +1.65%) |
| 10/21-22 | Anthropic's $450B; OpenAI multi-cloud; Meta's equity pivot | Draft S-1 read-outs (10/21): $450B of NON-CANCELABLE cloud commitments (24/7, Yahoo), $600B+ total compute contracts (~27x H1 revenue $16.3B); Korean relay: ~₩1,000T/10yr (~$750B, single-source). OpenAI's frontier models officially land on Google Cloud (official blogs + Reuters, 10/21) — Big-3 distribution complete, Azure exclusivity premium diluted ahead of the reported $30B raise. Credit leg: AI-linked CDS weekly volume >$9B, September volumes +4.5x, SoftBank credit risk at 4-year high (Herald); CRWV bond holders call the selloff an 'overreaction' (relay). NVDA's off-balance-sheet backstops: $170B+ for neoclouds (The Information) vs $164.5B DC backstops (Forbes) — vs September's $300B caliber (different denominators). |
| 10/22-24 | OpenAI repriced to $1.25T; Elice round-trip; Anthropic filing pending | CNBC/Reuters (10/22): OpenAI nears up to $30B at $1.25T (trimmed from $1.4T chatter), UAE investors + Coatue leading — the primary anchor fell ~11% in two weeks, in sync with secondary neocloud discounts. Anthropic's public S-1 filing was expected 'as early as Friday 10/23' but hadn't happened through Friday's close (MarketWatch: window narrowing; mid-November listing target; Reuters: 'Anthropic stands alone as jitters sideline others'). Contagion vs contained: Elice debuted -33% (Bloomberg) then reclaimed its IPO price on day two (Bloomberg 10/22; Korea Times: 'Wall Street's AI litmus test'); CoreWeave debt tumbled anew (Morningstar/PitchBook 10/22); CRWV -10.1% Thursday / -2.46% Friday $54.24; NBIS -7.2% Thursday despite fresh Citi financing; Singapore's DayOne weighing US IPO options; Nscale multi-front: CEO staff note touts contract value doubling (Bloomberg 10/21), Huang urged it to move faster (Bloomberg 10/22), a dismissed engineer is suing in Norway (TNW 10/23). Dan Ives: 'SaaS Apocalypse 2.0', ORCL 'in the toughest spot'. |
| 10/23-25 | The collateral thesis meets 16% yields; Anthropic filing watch | Huang (TechSpot Fri, Yahoo Sat byline Namrata Sen): GPUs last '8+ years not 4', 'really high' residual value, 'lowest-risk' asset for lenders — as neocloud bond yields print 16% (Martin Cid relay) and Bloomberg charts the Blackstone-fueled chip-collateral debt boom 'upending credit'. Pentagon line: ultimatum to Anthropic + judge re-blocks the 'supply chain risk' designation (ABC Sat, exclusive; saga since 3/5), with the public S-1 still unfiled through Sunday 07:30 (Renaissance 'nears'; Barron's pivots to biotech; FinanceFeeds: mid-Nov target). Treasury proposes adding AI+biotech to outbound-investment curbs (AP/Bloomberg, 10/23). Cambricon Q3: revenue ~RMB3.53B doubling but below estimates (36Kr). |
| 10/25-26 | SpaceX closes $40B GPU debt; Musk's 200-neocloud shakeout; NVDA's exposure decomposed | Musk (X, Sunday; Reuters/Bloomberg): SpaceX CLOSED $40B of debt to buy GPUs (1Q-2Q 2027 delivery; most to be repaid early; minimal Q4 impact) — structure matches FT 10/7 (~$10B bank + ~$30B IG, Apollo lead, PIMCO in) — and warns debt markets have 'almost entirely shut off' money for companies without non-AI revenue, predicting consolidation among 200+ neoclouds. CNBC (Saturday) decomposes NVDA's exposure as of the July filing: $36B off-balance-sheet neocloud backstops + up to $105B OpenAI Ohio guarantee + $20B signed leases (payable mostly only on default); CRWV CDS >11%, CRWV/NBIS/IREN -30%+ this month; Firmus IPO pulled, Nscale/SB Energy listings quiet for weeks. IO Fund (relay): AI debt ~4x to nearly $500B. Anthropic line: en banc petition vs Pentagon ban (BankInfoSecurity, Sunday); The Information's 'Big Reveal' = 5%-of-shares Public Benefit Fund (~$48B estimate, stockholder approval; +2% shares per +50% valuation — shattered.io); public S-1 still unfiled through Monday morning (Reuters: 'stands alone'); Claude accessed Georgia voter data (Axios via Reuters). NVDA 'discusses' a $2,000/GPU/yr AI-agent software fee (Yahoo/TechPowerUp/notebookcheck multi-source relay). |
| 10/26-29 | Two capex verdicts the same night; Anthropic S-1's $808B book; ORCL's cash roadmap; neocloud rebound | Microsoft FQ1'27 (10/28 AH): revenue $92.28B (+18.8%), EPS $4.92, Azure $33.16B +48% (above own 44-45% guide; FIRST-EVER dollar disclosure), net income $36.63B; FY26 capex guided to ~$175B (from ~$190B; quarter actual $39B, ~$6B light) on 'AI capacity delays' (BI) — stock +4.3% AH to $554.25. Alphabet Q3 (same night): revenue miss (search softness, ads +10.5%), cash burn worsened, 2026 capex held + 2027 'significant increase' promised — stock -10% AH (CNBC). Oracle analyst day (Las Vegas): FY27 reaffirmed ($90B+/$8.10+); FY26-30 revenue CAGR 35% → FY30 ≥$225B (street $217.7B); FY30 OPM >40%, EPS >$21; FCF positive 2H FY28, >$30B FY29; capex peaks FY27-28 — ORCL +10.73% $144.54, the first complete 'AI pays for itself' cash roadmap. Anthropic publicly filed S-1 on 10/26 (~400pp, 90+pp risk factors): H1'26 revenue $16.3B, net loss $80.7B (mostly non-cash); commitments layered at ≥$417B (compute/DC minimum payment obligations, end-2025 basis) → >$542B (incl. cloud + direct leases) → upwards of $808B total (≈24x annualized revenue); US data-center construction moratoriums named as a specific growth risk. Rebound: NBIS +11.2%/+7.0%, CRWV +7.9%/+7.3% (TradingView: 'Anthropic boost + SKH stunner'; Cramer cautious); META still sliding (-1.9/-1.6/-1.2% to $612.49) — no repair since the 10/22 rebuke. Verizon × AWS >$2B AI infrastructure deal (Reuters 10/26). AMZN reports 10/29 AH (AWS street ~41%, UBS says too low); AAPL 11/2. |
| 10/29-30 | The week's capex verdict, final reading; NVDA's contract-layer backstop; Bessent's pushback | Amazon Q3 (10/29 AH): revenue $201.9B (+12%), AWS $46.0B +39.3% (above $45.7B dollar consensus; fastest in ~5 years per GeekWire), record 13.9% operating margin — but EPS missed, FCF -$42.4B, 2026 capex held ~$220B, light Q4: -6% AH. Week's rule finalized across three prints: MSFT discipline+acceleration rewarded then faded (+4.3% AH → -0.16% close), GOOGL escalation+deceleration crushed (-12.64%, ~$500B — biggest single-day value loss in its history, DESPITE cloud doubling to $30.7B +103%), AMZN acceleration+negative-FCF still punished — FCF visibility is the common grading item. Microsoft's ~$6B quarterly capex shortfall attributed to 'delayed third-party capacity' (neocloud delivery) — CNBC: CRWV/NBIS/IREN dropped on the MSFT capex print (Thu: CRWV -4.99%, NBIS -5.68%, IREN -8.98%); the same bottleneck priced on both sides. The Information (10/29): Nvidia in talks to BACKSTOP Nscale's (new) $45B Anthropic project with credit support — circular chain gains a contract node (NVDA credit → Nscale → Anthropic → SpaceX, where Anthropic is >1/3 of Q3 revenue on a FINITE deal per Bloomberg). Counter-voice: Treasury Secretary Bessent — neocloud debt 'not problematic at all', a 'small component'. INTC Q4 guidance disaster (-20%+ AH on PC weakness despite DC +78%, AI unit $3B > PC). MRVL -13.2% on Bloomberg-reported advanced talks to buy Lumentum (~$80B relayed scale). Next: Friday US open prices the AH block; Kioxia FQ2; AAPL 11/2; NVDA earnings scheduled 11/17. |
| 10/30-31 | Credit tiering reaches the lab layer: Blackstone's junk call on Anthropic; the $63B 'Project Northstar' catch-up; Reddit's interception invoice | FT via Chosunbiz (10/30-31): Blackstone told investors in the $63B 'Project Northstar' financing (BofA/Blackstone/Citi/Morgan Stanley vehicle funding Anthropic's Broadcom chip purchases — Reuters/WSJ 10/26, missed by the 10-26/29 editions, caught up here) that Anthropic is expected to stay JUNK grade even after the IPO (it had expected IG); junk means some insurers/pensions can't size it, so Anthropic 'may have to accept higher rates or rely on guarantees from high-rated suppliers such as Broadcom and Nvidia.' S-1 backdrop: >$800B infra investment planned through 2045, >$112B cash, ~$100B IPO raise; roadshow unlaunched, window as soon as 11/16-18 (Yahoo). Cramer's defense: the $63B 'works because there is only one Hock Tan.' Friday closes: CRWV -9.66% $54.87, NBIS -10.38% $154.14, IREN -8.76% $23.95 (TradingKey 10/31 maps Musk's 200-neocloud shakeout exposure; Barron's counters that CRWV/NBIS survive). Same tape: Reddit -28~30% post-earnings on Google AI cutting US search traffic — the open web's first big interception invoice, GOOGL's flip-side positive. |
| 10/31-11/2 | Anthropic's bumpy Nasdaq path; a pre-IPO ETP; DeepSeek's agent; CRWV longs vs shorts; the Binance shock | CNBC (Sat): 'Anthropic's path to the Nasdaq just got a lot bumpier' — within days of the S-1, MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN results lit AI-buildout jitters; Futurum's Newman: 'more doubt on capital structure' — IPO pricing variables shift from growth multiples to financing structure (chain: Blackstone's junk-grade call). 21Shares listed an Anthropic synthetic ETP (CLAU) — a pre-IPO retail instrument and an early IPO-demand read; Fortune: Anthropic asks candidates what they'd do if the stock hit zero. DeepSeek shipped an autonomous coding agent weeks before ANTP (Digital Trends/The Star; 4k GitHub stars in a day is single-source) — competitive pressure lands on the IPO window. CRWV positioning war: Business Insider (10/27) 'Big Short' traders unpack their bear case vs Yahoo (10/30) CRWV among insider-buying growth names; 24/7: 'debt service is the true neocloud litmus test'. Macro/risk backdrop: largest-ever $6.3B Binance hack (NK suspected per UPI; FBI names hackers; withdrawals resumed Sunday; $3.64B net outflows) — BTC held $77-78K, SOL pressured; exchange-trust shock did not transmit to AI duration assets. US futures Monday: ES +0.4%/NQ +0.8% (IBD: 'futures rise but market still ails'). |
| 11/2-11/3 | Anthropic's amended S-1 lifts commitments to $895B; ORCL files the cycle's first mega-cap hyperscaler common-stock raise; CRWV's all-time low | Anthropic amended S-1 (Monday ~15:00 CST, in-window; TNW/Cristian Dina): Q3 revenue ~$17B (+45-47% QoQ, slowing from +145%), Q3 back to an operating loss ($567M), net loss $23.3B (mostly non-cash; 9M revenue $33.24B, 9M net loss $104B); purchase commitments $895.4B — +$87B in one week (AOL: 'the computing bill approaches $900 billion'); post-window TokenPost (08:42 CST): valuation expectations fall to $1.5-1.6T. Commitments inflating while valuation deflates — the 'commitment discount rate' is the only ANTP pricing variable; listing window 11/16-18 unchanged, roadshow not launched. ORCL (Monday pre-market): $20B raise filed for the AI buildout — $10B common stock + $10B IG bonds (Yahoo; the bond leg launched post-window per Bloomberg); stock -8.76% $119.22 (> $60B market cap erased), giving back the entire analyst-day rally in two days — the first mega-cap hyperscaler common-stock sale of this cycle, shifting 'AI self-funding' from creditors to shareholders. CRWV all-time low $50.15 (-8.60%, -44% over a month; Benzinga) with CPP 'getting selective' on AI debt; CNBC contrarian 'I see a potential triple'; NBIS -8.27%, IREN -8.06%. MRVL-Lumentum $115B all-stock signed and instantly rejected: MRVL -12.72% $171.41 (-32% since 10/29), LITE -18.59% $684.40 below pre-rumor (all-stock consideration tracks the buyer down); both shareholder bases panning 'a trash offer' (MSN) — premium M&A fails its first live test in a risk-off tape. |
| 11/3-11/4 | Oracle prices the $20B raise and gets rewarded; the credit complex's first collective relief day; Anthropic's target slides to $1.5-1.6T | ORCL priced (PR Newswire): 86,206,897 shares at $116 (an 11.2% discount to last close, Seeking Alpha) + a six-part senior-notes sale (Dealroom: part of a $50B AI buildout plan) — after Monday's -8.76% punishment, the stock closed +5.84% $126.19 (intraday +7%); Stephens turned bullish on cash-flow visibility; SA: 'capex falls in FY29.' The equity channel for AI capex priced end-to-end and was rewarded within 24 hours. The complex read it as relief: CRWV +7.16% $53.74 (off Monday's all-time low $50.15), IREN +11.08% $24.46, NBIS +7.25% $151.64 — 24/7: 'AI data center stocks rebound from financing jitters'; Applied Digital +9%. Watch: bond-tranche spreads (terms not yet in our sources) and whether CRWV retakes the lows — CPP's 'selective' stance unchanged. Anthropic: WSJ — institutions preparing to participate urge a $1.5-1.6T target (from ~$2T discussed), citing the tech selloff and Q3 deceleration (144%→47% QoQ); the amended filing shows compute costs at 58% of revenue (MSN relay); Chosunbiz EN corroborates. Commitments $895.4B vs a $1.5-1.6T valuation — the scissors keep opening; window 11/16-18 stands, roadshow unlaunched. |
| 11/4-11/7 | Microsoft declines Nscale's Texas expansion option days before the $35B IPO; Anthropic's roadshow set for next week at $1.1-1.2T; the credit complex at historic lows | FT (11/6): 'Microsoft rejects multibillion-dollar AI deal with UK's Nscale' — DCD/Bloomberg Law: MSFT declined its OPTION to more than double the Texas compute contract (the original $43.8B deal stands), days before Nscale's targeted $35B NYSE listing (still unpriced as of 11/7); BigGo (single source): MSFT also tightening scrutiny of Nebius/IREN projects. First live case of counterparty selective exercise — the 'option layer' of neocloud contract books repriced (track-record 10-18 #1 closed HIT). Anthropic: The Information — the IPO roadshow starts NEXT WEEK, no price set; Bloomberg (via The Edge Singapore): buyers see the valuation as low as $1.1T (three-week path $2T → $1.5-1.6T → $1.1-1.2T against commitments of $895.4B); Reuters exclusive: 'AI backlash could threaten Anthropic IPO timing'; listing window 11/16-18. Credit complex: CRWV all-time lows $48.42 Wed → $43.66 Thu (-9.8%), NBIS -14.9% Thu then +7.6% Fri, IREN -17.0% Thu then +20.0% Fri; EQIX/DLR rose Wednesday (+3.91%/+2.57%) before Thursday's beta wash — 'existing contract cash flow vs incremental permit cash flow' tiered cleanly for one day, then got flattened. MSFT itself +6.68% $555.80 Wednesday (the IG anchor). Read: both ends of the self-funding chain (lab equity + neocloud expansion) tightened simultaneously — politically triggered, transmitted through equity and order books, not bond spreads (the 10-17 deep-dive sequel). |
| 11/7-11/9 | The capital clock's second case + postpone talk: MSFT winds down Oracle rental; ANTP roadshow into '$1T' chatter; CRWV writes to Texas | Bloomberg (Fri 11/6): Microsoft winding down its 2023 deal renting AI capacity from Oracle — declined to renew, turning capacity off over months; older-gen Nvidia GPUs 'no longer fit'; Oracle told Reuters demand remains strong (incl. earlier-gen GPUs) — the second publicized counterparty non-exercise in a week after the Nscale Texas option. ANTP: roadshow set to start this week (The Information); 24/7 (Sat): one investor says the $1.5T IPO could be postponed, another sees it 'closer to $1T'; Yahoo (Fri): big investors doubt $1.5T post-crash. CRWV: CEO Intrator wrote Sat to Texas Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa (D, campaigned on pausing new DCs) asking permitted projects finish + offering standards help (Bloomberg/TNW); bonds hit new lows 11/4 (Bloomberg); options imply ±20.7% around this week's earnings (BeInCrypto); 24/7: Texas blue wave threatens 27% of planned US DC power. Nscale: still no pricing action as of press time. |
| 11/9-11/10 | CRWV's test arrives with diversification in hand: Wayve multi-year deal official, backlog $103.7B, options ±20.7% into tonight's print; ANTP's $69.3B raise flashes and retracts | CoreWeave (Mon 11/9, official PR/DCD): multi-year agreement to power Wayve's AI Driver training on Blackwell GPUs — extended from the Weights & Biases relationship (W&B acquired 2025); CRWV +6.96% Monday; backlog $103.7B (FourWeekMBA). Tonight's Q3 (report 11/10 after close): consensus ~$3.54B revenue (+159% YoY) vs ~$900M quarterly interest (Fortune via MSN); options imply ±20.7% (~$4.85B swing); Wells Fargo cut target $160→$115, kept Overweight; CNBC unpacks the 'doom cycle' narrative; TheStreet: banks that raced to fund neoclouds are hesitating. ANTP: Reuters exclusive (11/10) — $70-80/share, up to $69.3B raise terms briefly circulated to banks, then retracted (The Information: outside counsel sent wrong documents); Bloomberg: waiting period expired; IFR: roadshow launches Tuesday; listing 11/16-18; Pluang: target $1.25-1.75T. Fable 5.2/Mythos 5.2 shipped the night before (record benchmarks, 20% API cut). Nscale: no pricing action (Silicon UK re-reports the MSFT option decline; no new). |
| 11/10-11/11 | CRWV beat-and-raise lands ($3.66B, backlog $132.5B, +15.7% AH); ANTP's range lands at $70-78 with a $26B supplier placement; NBIS wobbles into 11/12 | CoreWeave Q3 (SEC filing via 24/7): revenue $3.66B (+168% YoY, +3.4% vs. $3.54B consensus), EPS -$1.27 vs. -$1.55; FY26 guidance raised to $13.0-13.3B with a $20-21B exit run-rate; backlog ~$132.5B (from $103.7B); +200MW active power to >1.7GW; adjusted OPM double digits a quarter early; GAAP net loss $709M; FY capex $37-39B (low end raised); ~$9B of customer prepayments expected within 3 months; 35M-share ATM established; new/expanded customers Canva, OpenAI, Perplexity, Wayve, CZI; Reuters: 2028 profitability targeted. After-hours +5.7% → +15.7% (~22:00 ET). ANTP: 825M shares at $70-78 (pricing 11/18, trading 11/19), up to $64.35B raised, $1.405T FD top; $26B Class N private placement from AMD/AVGO/GOOGL/MU/MSFT/NVDA/TSM at the IPO price; ~20% retail allocation (CNBC). NBIS -5.27% Tuesday on Microsoft-partnership concerns (StreetInsider) ahead of its 11/12 print (consensus revenue +500%+; street-high target $410). |
| 11/11-11/12 | The credit second reading lands positive — and moves to spreads: CRWV +24.7% with a $4B+ IG loan in preparation | CRWV closed +24.71% at $60.77, best day since the April 2025 IPO (CNBC), igniting the AI-cloud rally (Reuters: lifted NVDA too); Bloomberg: preparing at least $4B of investment-grade loan facility led by Morgan Stanley + Mitsubishi UFJ after an improved credit outlook — the banking system's first balance-sheet test of 'GPU collateral + take-or-pay cash flow' as quasi-IG (one month after Jensen's 'GPUs are the lowest-risk collateral' 10/23, and October's ~15% straight-debt yields). New financing playbook (Morningstar/MarketWatch): ~$9B customer prepayments, borrowing against specific contracts, shorter contracts at higher prices; CEO: demand exceeds 2027 capacity 10:1; CNBC counterweight: ~$15B principal due over ~2 years. After hours gave some back on the NVDA board shock. ANTP: roadshow day one book 'oversubscribed multiple times' (SA/Quartz; Yahoo: $90.4B combined = $64.35B IPO top + $26B placement); ORCL +8.82% $128.38 ($325 target); NBIS +15.44% into tonight's Q3. |
| 11/12-11/13 | The scoring-rule week: CRWV +24.7% (Tue) vs NBIS -16.84% (Thu, $128.64; intraday -22%) — the market pays for contracted revenue per GW x prepayment coverage, not GW under construction. NBIS Q3: revenue $980.8M +571% (a beat), 2027 guide $12-13B, prepayments cover >100% of capex (company line) — but 2026 revenue cut to the low end on capacity delays and 2026 capex raised to $27B (2027 up to $45B, single source); MSFT-partnership concerns unaddressed (Crypto Briefing preview). CRWV -6.86% $56.60, IREN -6.53% sympathy. Credit line second reading: Bloomberg's full $4B+ IG-loan story; bonds rallying post-Q3 ('debt anxiety cooling,' Yahoo/Bloomberg); Morningstar 'the debt question finally got an answer'; counterweights: TradingView 'the plan comes with a catch,' ~$15B principal due in ~2 years (CNBC). ANTP: FT says bankers prepare to raise the IPO valuation to $1.5T+ against the $70-78 range — the 11/18 pricing is the 'center downshift' falsification point. | |
| 11/13-11/14 | The scoring rule keeps liquidating: NBIS -9.92% $115.88 (two days -25%), CRWV -6.13% $53.13, IREN -6.72% Friday — while CRWV's credit line advanced to term-sheet level: the >=$4B IG loan is collateralized by the Meta contracts (Semafor via Crypto Briefing/MLQ), MS/Mitsubishi UFJ leading; TheStreet 'a clear message on debt'; bonds rallied through the week (Bloomberg). Credit improvement != equity repair. ANTP: book 6x oversubscribed by roadshow day three (Reuters; day one ~2x; institutional interest outpacing SpaceX's early days); pricing 11/18 at up to $64B (825M shares $70-78, greenshoe 123.75M); models hinge on 2028 revenue $270-280B; Reuters weekend exclusive: investors question durability, Anthropic 'did not provide detailed answers' at some meetings; retail 20% (typical 5-10%) + passive ~28% + $26B supplier placement = half the book price-insensitive. TSMC board: NT$16.43B (~$510M) into the Class N placement + NT$16.43B into OpenAI preferreds (Nikkei via Taiwan News). OpenAI reportedly raising $15B at $1.25T (single source). Cerebras: record Q3, cloud revenue +265%, raised 2026 guide + a Microsoft deal, +17% AH Thursday, +11% Friday — the second large sample of hyperscaler-backed non-NVDA inference supply (after Google TPU 8tx). |
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- October PPI at 6.5% y/y (highest since 2022, core topping expectations) pushed 10Y to 5.15% — its third straight up-day — and took SOX down -3.43% to 10,146 even as the Nasdaq printed its best week since August: the rates leg is now the AI complex's dominant counterparty. The Kress file turned the 11/17 NVDA print into an audit of the promise web: as CFO she opposed Huang's proposed $250B OpenAI backstop (the Ohio project was cut to $120B, ~$100B guaranteed so far), and Broadcom is reportedly offering to cover a larger share of deals than Nvidia's 25% — options price a ±9.67% / ~$280B move. Anthropic's IPO book reached six times oversubscribed by roadshow day three (institutional interest outpacing SpaceX's early days) with TSMC's board putting NT$16.43B into the Class N placement plus NT$16.43B into OpenAI preferreds. AMD -8.75% unwound most of the separation trade's gains (positioning, not news); NBIS fell another -9.92% (two days -25%) while Cerebras surged on a Microsoft deal; MU $778/SNDK $885 broke their $800/$950 gates ahead of Tuesday's 11/19 verdict; TSMC-Xintec signed a 7-year CoWoS expansion (2029 volume, NT$15B CBs). Saturday edition with the weekly deep dive: 'The Credit Anatomy of the AI Promise Web.'
- Jensen Huang has officially resigned as Nvidia's President, CEO and board member (company announcement: CFO Colette Kress becomes interim CEO while keeping the CFO role; ex-Synopsys CEO Harvey C. Jones becomes first-ever board chair; a permanent-CEO search starts) — NVDA fell as much as -10% premarket and closed -4.34% while AMD +5.86% and AVGO +5.54%, formally closing out the separation regime: over two sessions NVDA -1.6% vs AMD +13.6%/AVGO +9.8%. But the political chain escalated on every front: DOJ multi-track probes (antitrust + smuggling, touching Supermicro and Megaspeed), Reuters reporting the White House weighing Commerce Secretary Lutnick's ouster over chip-export policy, Sen. Cotton demanding CXMT's blacklisting, and Speaker Johnson seeing a congressional 'developing consensus' on China chip-export limits. Nebius fell -16.84% post-earnings — revenue +571% beat, yet the 2026 guide cut to the low end on capacity delays with capex raised to $27B — the perfect mirror of CRWV's +24.7%: the neocloud scoring rule is now explicit, the market pays only for prepayments + revenue visibility. Applied Materials printed a record FQ4 ($10.4B +53%, Q1 guided $11.1B, 2027 WFE demand +30%+) with SK hynix's HBM4 yield topping 70%. Bonds reopened at 10Y 5.10% (+10bp), Brent settled $95.82 +3.3% on Saudi energy-site attacks, BTC broke $72K toward $69.3K.
- Nvidia's board is reported to be weighing ousting CEO Jensen Huang: the NYT disclosed a second affair (with VP of healthcare Kimberly Powell), Reuters reported the board met Wednesday to decide his future, and the WSJ followed after hours with 'preparing to oust' — NVDA fell 8-10% in extended trading while AMD and Broadcom each rose over 3%, the terminal form of the de-NVDA-fication separation trade. By day, the tape was the mirror image: CoreWeave closed +24.7% (best day since April 2025) and is preparing a $4B+ investment-grade loan led by Morgan Stanley and Mitsubishi UFJ; SOX +5.66%, MU +11.9%, SNDK +13.7% as memory violently re-rated (Morgan Stanley flipping to 'risk-reward improved' just 48 hours after its -38% cut; BofA's supercycle-through-2028). Anthropic's roadshow book was already 'oversubscribed multiple times' against a $90.4B combined issuance target. Wednesday was Veterans Day — bonds were closed, so the +1.3%/+5.7% re-rating never met the rates market.
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