HBM 产能、供给与先进封装追踪

追踪 HBM4 供给、2026-2027 产能预订、CoWoS 封装与 Rubin 降配风险：SK 海力士、三星、美光与台积电的 AI 存储周期全景。

hbm产能 2027 · 三星hbm产能 · 美光hbm产能翻倍 · cowos 产能

日期	事件	读数
9/10	TSMC August revenue	NT$514.8B, +53.3% YoY, all-time monthly record
9/18	TrendForce packaging outlook	CoWoS-L mainstream through 2028; 2026 high-end GPU shipments +30% YoY
9/17	Google TPU packaging	evaluating CoWoS backup as Intel EMIB-T yields lag (~90% vs 98% gate)
9/18	TrendForce: equipment component lead times	reportedly doubled, stretching to 40 months — 2027 supply cannot turn around
9/20	SK hynix hybrid bonding gate (Herald Business)	90-98% yield non-negotiable; adoption pushed to HBM5; NVDA said to be eyeing lower-spec HBM options
9/21	Taiwan advanced packaging park groundbreaking	TSMC-anchored site breaks ground — forward land-slot signal for 2027-28 CoWoS supply
9/21	Intel × AUO packaging talks (UNCONFIRMED)	reports of cooperation on CPO/Micro LED advanced packaging — first external flagship-customer signal if it lands
9/22	Alibaba full-stack compute timetable (Apsara)	Zhenwu V900 mass production 1Q27 (3x M890, 216GB, 1.2TB/s, FP8/FP4); ICN switch composes 500k-chip clusters; Panjiu supernode 1Q27; Yitian 720/730 CPUs 3Q27
9/23	UBS CoWoS note (media relay, single source)	capacity seen raised to 270k wpm; ASICs and CPUs lead the next expansion wave — the packaging demand matrix widens beyond GPUs
9/23	TechInsights iPhone 18 Pro teardown	TSMC 2nm nanosheet transistors confirmed in volume silicon — first third-party evidence of the 2nm ramp
9/24	TSMC locks 2027 price hikes 3-6%	from Jan 2027, advanced nodes leading; AI orders reportedly paying up to triple (DigiTimes original, widely relayed); capacity seen tight through 2030
9/25	12-inch wafer LTAs +15-40%	2027 epi +15-25%, polished +40%+ (2nd-tier possibly +50%+); spot could exceed LTA as early as 4Q26; pandemic-era LTAs expiring (Commercial Times via TrendForce)
9/23	Intel EMIB substrate yields ~45%	from ~30% in 2Q26; targets 50% by 4Q26, 60% by 1Q27; EMIB-T shifts interconnect integration to substrate suppliers — negative read for the Google TPU backup thesis (VERIFY)
9/24	QCOM-Apple global patent license renewed	effective April 2027 as the old deal expires (5G modem patents); QCOM +4.0% Friday after reversing an initial selloff — Apple's modem-independence timeline slips again, QTL duration extends
10/15	TSMC Q3 print	revenue $46.72B (+41.2% YoY), net profit $23.55B (+69%) — sixth straight record; Q4 guided up; call covers AI demand, A14, Texas expansion; stock -4% over two sessions anyway
10/14	ASML Q3 print	record €11.7B sales, €5.0B net income; customers booking into 2029-30 ('AI chipmakers want more machines than we can build'); China = 23% of system sales (export-control sensitivity); -3.9% on print day
10/13	Qualcomm v Arm verdict (Delaware jury)	jury finds Arm breached its license agreement with Qualcomm; damages $2 (nominal); judge could still suspend Arm royalties for five years; both sides claim victory; ARM -31.6% from the 9/22 peak
10/13	NVDA Vera Rubin in production	production start confirmed; CRWV shipping NVL72 at production scale since 9/30 — Rubin orders as revealed preference contradict the slowdown narrative
10/15-16	TSMC packaging spillover	CEO Wei on the call: TSMC could back up customers if Intel EMIB-T ramp falls short (5x-reticle yields "excellent"); GF $2B/5-yr interposer deal (10/8) targets 1H28 US ramp; INTC -5.8% Friday to $89.85; brokerage 2028 TSMC capex forecasts reach $105B (TrendForce)
10/19	CoWoS/HBM logic layer consolidates	NVHBM base-die unification on TSMC 3nm (all three HBM makers) extends the CoWoS-ecosystem spillover pattern (GF interposer 10/8, TSMC EMIB-T backstop 10/15): the leading-node logic layer of AI memory now sits at TSMC; Samsung turnkey concession. Intel side: 14A reportedly lands Apple/Nvidia/Broadcom-tier foundry customers (BigGo 10/15 relay, UNCONFIRMED; INTC +2.4% Mon)
10/21-22	Six-supplier expansion; ABF substrate capacity in Korea	The Information (10/21): Nvidia expands deals with six chip component suppliers; Korea Times/CryptoBriefing: Samsung Electro-Mechanics enters the AI substrate (ABF) supply chain with capacity expansion planned in South Korea — substrates are a real GB300/Rubin-era bottleneck, and Nvidia is buying 2027 supply insurance with orders. Lam Research (Wed after close): record $8.22B quarter, guidance beat — stock still fell; the 2027 WFE upgrade repricing is deferred by positioning.
10/21-23	Terafab timetable; DSX POD; B300s on China Telecom	Reuters (via TrendForce 10/21): Musk's Terafab targets volume production 3Q28 (he called it 'very aggressive'), first SRAM test chip at the Austin R&D facility around May-June 2027; Bloomberg: ASML and other equipment suppliers expediting shipments; TSMC's C.C. Wei confirmed talks — 'any ownership structure is possible, but the fab must be run by TSMC' — vs Musk's 'we will build and run the fab' (24/7 10/22). NVDA launched DSX POD at GTC Berlin (10/20-21): Vera Rubin reference architecture claiming 14-day AI-factory deployment, pitched on water/energy efficiency (ServeTheHome/DCD) — a direct weapon in the delivery-time contest. Lava detected 32 export-controlled Blackwell Ultra B300s on a China Telecom-linked network (CryptoBriefing 10/22; Tom's via MSN 10/23) — against TrendForce: supply for the $35B compliant RTX PRO 5500 orders covers just 5-10% of demand.
10/20-24	NVIDIA's official capacity numbers (GTC Berlin PR, 10/21)	Official PR: 2.5x substrate capacity over three years (IBIDEN multibillion-dollar advance, Ono plant 3x from 1Q28; Samsung Electro-Mechanics Sejong/Busan; Unimicron KF from 2Q27, full by mid-2028); Amkor advanced packaging +300%+ by end-2028; KYEC new US plants backed by a $1.1B capacity-reservation ADVANCE from NVIDIA; SPIL CPO optical engines 15x by mid-2027, another 2x by end-2028 — 'Demand is extraordinary. Capacity is the constraint' (Huang). Supply ceiling counterpart: Intel CTO — EUV tool shortage caps AI chip supply growth at ~2x (Tech Times, event 10/23). BigGo single-source (UNCONFIRMED, archived): Tesla+NVDA reportedly bankroll a $2.8B SEMCO substrate buildout.
11/3-11/4	Samsung Taylor fab #2 to make HBM base dies for AMD/Nvidia (reported)	Reuters (citing Maeil Business, 11/3): Samsung will use its second Taylor, Texas foundry plant to produce HBM base dies for AMD and Nvidia; the ~2.7M sq ft facility has construction scheduled to begin this month; 'AMD could become the plant's biggest customer' (Android Headlines relay). Discrepancy noted: Yahoo's Market Chatter version lists the customers as AMD + Broadcom — all report-level, no announcement. Ties to the NVHBM VERIFY item: base-die logic capacity moving to US soil is a new HBM supply variable — a PARALLEL path to the 'NVHBM base dies unify on TSMC 3nm' story (Seoul Economic Daily single-source), neither officially confirmed; if both are real, base-die logic supply loosens from two directions into 2027-28, easing the packaging bottleneck NVDA's GTC-Berlin numbers describe.
11/4-11/7	Asia's equipment/packaging tape under the political shock; TSMC stabilizes on short-selling curbs	Taiwan: the Taiex posted its worst week since 2001 (two-day 3,000+ point plunge), TSMC briefly limit-down Friday; the regulator set new short-selling limits (Seeking Alpha) and the TSMC ADR closed +6.34% $375.44 Friday (Benzinga's '+7%' was intraday); Taipei Times: the government ordered stabilization — a 2001/2008-grade toolbox opened. Korea: SKH -10.44% but Tokyo Electron's strong-outlook decoupling held through the crash — equipment-demand vs memory-price reads stayed split. AMAT: -13.6% Thursday, +4.2% Friday $332.72 (-21% from the month-ago $421); the 11/12 print is the WFE-cut vs memory-capex-up adjudication (24/7 previewed 'rescue or break'). HBM supply-side reads inside the rout: TrendForce's 8-Hi HBM4 shift (Rubin Ultra) keeps 'unit density + supply certainty' the demand currency; the Samsung Taylor fab #2 HBM-base-die story (reported-level) unaffected but still unconfirmed. COHR +13.58% Friday alongside AMD +11.0%. No change to packaging capacity numbers (GTC Berlin frame intact) — the week was beta, not structure.
11/7-11/9	TSMC asked by Nvidia to weigh 3D DRAM (The Information); October sales land ~11/9-10 into the short-selling-cap tape	The Information (Fri 11/6): TSMC drafting 3D DRAM plans at Nvidia's request, led by advanced-packaging VP Hsu Kuo-chin — could build new fabs or buy and convert an existing plant (Reuters/Bloomberg relays); Friday TSM +6.34% $375.44 (short-selling curbs + report); Sunday: TSMC 'reaffirms foundry focus' (report-level, not a denial). If it proceeds, the DRAM three-player structure gains a fourth player with the best logic process in 2028+; mirrors MU's 3D DRAM bet (CTO: 4F² 'fundamentally problematic'). TSMC October sales due ~11/9-10 (ad-hoc-news: 'a short-selling cap in Taipei and an October sales report 24 hours later'); Taiwan AI-server makers posted October sales up to +137% (FourWeekMBA) as the leading read; Taiex +6.4% Monday on day two of the short-selling curbs.
11/9-11/10	Taiwan's policy floor holds while foreigners exit: Taiex +4.94% on day two of curbs + the NT$500B stabilization fund; TSMC October sales post today	Taiwan Monday close +4.94% (Focus Taiwan; 'rally 6%' headlines are intraday) — short-sale curbs (imposed 11/6, Bloomberg) + the NT$500B National Stabilization Fund (Taipei Times); TSMC Taipei +4.68%. The counter-flow: foreign investors sold NT$90B Monday and have sold TSMC for 22 straight sessions (BigGo) — a policy floor underneath a foreign de-risking tape. TSMC October sales due after the Taipei close today (11/10, post-window; next issue) — last week Taiwan AI-server makers printed October sales up to +137% (leading indicator). Tuesday post-window: Taiex gapped +468 points above 42,900. The 3D DRAM VERIFY stands — no official word; 'TSMC = the Fed of AI' framing spreads (AI Reset to Zero).
11/10-11/11	TSMC October revenue NT$586.89B, +59.7% YoY — a monthly record that re-accelerates from September's +53% while the political tape discounts	TSMC October sales (after Taipei close 11/10): NT$586.89B (~$18.4B), +59.7% YoY, a 2026 monthly high — Bloomberg/CNBC/Taiwan News multi-source; Wedbush: 'a strong start to the quarter.' The hard-data gauntlet's second tile: NVDA's two-day -$400B happened the same week the largest foundry's monthly revenue accelerated. Taiwan Tuesday close +2.52% to 42,711.92 (day three of short-sale curbs; Monday's +4.94% included the NT$500B stabilization fund); TSM ADR +2.02% to $396.48. No 3D DRAM word in the numbers-only monthly release — the supply-chain forum / January earnings remain the verification windows. Google's 8tx TPU on AMD EPYC Turin hosts (STH/TrendForce) keeps the host-CPU + HBM bandwidth arms race in custom-ASIC ecosystems compounding. Wednesday post-window: Taiex +1.8% to 43,471.
11/11-11/12	Equipment re-rates ahead of AMAT's verdict: 'the DRAM ramp is the loudest demand signal' gets tested tonight	Wednesday: LRCX +9%, KLA +7%, AMAT +6.05% $395.08 — AMAT's 'rescue or break' (11-04 call) runs the rescue branch: +9% in two days off the -21% drawdown from $421. Tonight (Thu 05:00 CST) is AMAT FQ4: Trefis asks whether it can deliver 36% sales growth; options price an ±8.8% swing (BigGo caliber). Chain: MU +11.9%/memory re-rating → the duo's capex (on top of last week's reported W20T-each EUV pre-orders, TrendForce) → equipment order books verify the cycle peak first. AMD's second engine: EPYC Venice 9006 shipping + Google tapping fifth-gen EPYC (BigGo, single source — consistent with TPU 8tx on EPYC Turin hosts); SMCI +11%; TSM +4.26% $413.35 with no single-stock news.
11/12-11/13	AMAT FQ4 verdict lands on rescue: record revenue $10.4B +53% (crushing Trefis's 36% bar), EPS beat, Q1 guided $11.1B, and 2027 WFE demand forecast up more than 30% (SA) — 'AI demand outstrips supply' on the call (BigGo caliber). The 11-04 'rescue or break' call formally resolves to rescue; after-hours gains (Investing.com) with today's regular session pending (Thursday close $380.95, -3.58% pre-print; LRCX -0.89%/KLAC -2.30% digesting). Chain: memory capex shifting from capacity expansion to tool lock-in (the reported W20T-each EUV pre-buys) upgrades from supply-chain chatter to company-level guidance; Samsung expanding advanced packaging capacity alongside SKH's HBM4 yield >70% (digitimes) — equipment order books verify the cycle peak first. Watch: Tokyo Electron and the January book-to-bill as the next confirmations.
11/13-11/14	TSMC-Xintec seven-year CoWoS expansion (11/13, Taiwan News, Bryan Chou): Xintec (~41% TSMC-owned, >70% TSMC-related revenue) builds and operates a dedicated on-substrate CoWoS line inside TSMC's Central Taiwan Science Park facilities in Taichung — volume production 2029; Xintec's board approved NT$15B (~$456M) convertibles Friday for the initial buildout. With GF's interposer insertion (10/8) and TSMC's EMIB-T backstop talk (10/15), 'packaging multi-sourcing' now has three points. TSMC separately set up a NT$16.49B strategic-investment company (the 'nurture the next Nvidia' venture-fund line). AMAT's regular-session verdict was lukewarm: -2.74% $370.50 despite the record FQ4 + 2027 WFE +30% guide (Barron's: Nvidia fallout lingers) — the rescue branch discounts against the rates tape; Morningstar raised fair value the same day. Trap: the weekend 'TSMC CoWoS +20% price hike' wave is the Oct 26 story re-crawled, not a new event. Friday closes: TSM -1.67% $398.73, LRCX -3.36%, KLAC -3.17%, AMAT $370.50; Taiwan +1.35% 43,675.12.

HBM 产能、供给与先进封装追踪

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