存储涨价追踪：DRAM / NAND 合约价走势

2026 年 DRAM / NAND 合约价实时追踪：TrendForce 季度数据、原厂涨价动作，以及对美光、SK 海力士、三星、SNDK 的含义。

存储涨价原因 · 存储涨价趋势 · DRAM 合约价 · NAND 涨价幅度

季度	服务器/常规 DRAM 环比	NAND 环比	状态
2Q26	+58–63%	+70–75%	done
3Q26	+13–18%	+10–15%	done
4Q26	forecast ~9/24–25	forecast ~9/24–25	pending
9/19-20	Citi memory outlook	shortages deepen through 2031; 2027 DRAM capacity growth seen capped ~8% — the sell-side anchor into MU 9/30
9/20	CXMT G5 mass production (Reuters)	5th-gen DRAM platform + 24Gb LPDDR5X (11.95nm SAQP, DUV-only) — first supply clock on the shortage consensus
9/21	Samsung HBM4/4E capacity plan (SE Daily via TPU)	glass-carrier math: 20k→50k wpm in 2027 (2.5x); total HBM ~180k→~250k wpm, 80% HBM4/4E — first hard 2027 supply-response number
9/22	TrendForce MU preview	big-five hyperscaler CapEx +13.2% to $1.17T in FY28; focus on HBM4 ramp, LTAs, margin durability into 9/30
9/21	Agent memory footprint (Wccftech math)	100M Muse users ≈ 1.58M Ryzen-class CPUs, 800PB DRAM, 10,000PB SSD — agent workloads as a second memory demand curve
9/22	Rosenblatt initiates SNDK (Buy, $2,400)	8 largest NAND customers contracted over ~65% of FY2028 production — first contract-side evidence for cycle smoothing; risks named: execution, commodity reversion
9/22	Chosun Ilbo: AI demand splits DRAM and NAND	the divergence goes mainstream; TrendForce lists Muse as a CPU:GPU ratio driver — agent memory elasticity enters industry-research canon
9/22	SK hynix CEO Global Forum (event 9/18)	'AI industry cannot exist without memory'; Yongin + Indiana + new US AI R&D center; HBM4 already in NVIDIA Rubin, HBM4E in progress
9/23	Businesskorea: Samsung/SKH HBM race	both racing to expand HBM output as supply stays tight; Samsung/SKH buyback window ~1 week left
9/23	DIGITIMES: labs to buy memory directly	OpenAI and Anthropic expected to start direct purchases from makers in 2027; Anthropic DRAM demand 'rivals NVIDIA's' (via Chosun/aju Press); Stargate groundwork up to 900k wpm expansion at Samsung/SK
9/23	Bernstein HBM share shift	Samsung HBM growth outpaced SK hynix in August; Q3 HBM revenue forecast +72% QoQ on HBM4 acceleration; JPMorgan (single-source relay) 63% demand CAGR 2026-28
9/23	TrendForce spot check	DRAM spot 'cautious'; DDR4 2Gx8 -3.6% on the day — the 4Q26 contract forecast (due ~9/24-25) is the direction valve
9/23	YMTC v Micron, German court	court reportedly finds Micron infringed two NAND patents, grants injunctions — YMTC's first win in the 3-year patent war; a legal tail into MU 9/30
9/23	Wolfe raises SKHY ADR to $250	models SKHY/MU buying back 32%/25% of market cap via 2027 FCF — memory discourse shifts to FCF buyback capacity
9/23	Samsung LPDDR6 first Snapdragon validation	10.7Gbps on 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6, +21% efficiency vs LPDDR5X; Galaxy S27 may split tiers (1g LPDDR5X on some models); CXMT LPDDR6 at 12.8Gbps already in mass production (Xiaomi 18 Fold first platform) — mobile DRAM becomes a Samsung vs CXMT head-to-head timetable
9/24	Micron EOLs 2GB GDDR7	3GB chip ~$60-70 vs $20 for 2GB (VideoCardz) — ~3x price for +50% capacity; RTX 50 Super constrained by 3GB costs; bits keep migrating to highest-value products in the shortage
9/24	CXMT/YMTC capacity ramp	CXMT DRAM ~320k -> 420k wpm by 2027; YMTC 3rd Wuhan fab end-2026 — but institutions see China's own AI/cloud demand soaking up new supply through 2027; global impact 2028+ at earliest
9/24	SNDK index-flow test day 4/5	close $1,753.62: below the 9/18 close $1,791.82, above the half-giveback line ~$1,703 — momentum quality deteriorating; verdict 9/28
9/25	SNDK index-flow test, final (5/5)	close $1,777.80: -0.8% vs the 9/18 close $1,791.82, never near the half-giveback line ~$1,703 — momentum quality passed (two -3% days inside, no breakdown)
9/24	ITC institutes Section 337 DRAM probe	respondents: Micron, Lenovo, Super Micro, HPE (Netlist DDR5 patents, filed 8/12); ultimate remedy = import exclusion order (16-18mo to final); Samsung's $898M Netlist settlement sets the damages bar — three days before MU's print
9/21	TrendForce 4Q26 eSSD forecast	'stronger North American demand keeps 4Q26 enterprise SSD prices on an upward trend' — enterprise/consumer NAND fork confirmed; broad 4Q26 DRAM/NAND forecast still pending
9/30	TrendForce 4Q26 forecast published	AI server demand sustains 4Q26 contract price increases while consumer-side pressure persists — direction up, slope converging; companion read (8/25): DRAM+NAND = 68% of major CSP CapEx in 2027
9/30	MU FY26Q4 print	$54.2B record quarter ($40B DRAM), GAAP NI $37.7B, Q1FY27 guided $61.5B; ~75% of 2027 supply sold out, 'tight through 2028'; FY26 revenue ~$133B (relayed); after-hours dip on capex hike, then all-time high 10/1 ($1,097.40)
10/6-9	Samsung Q3 guidance + 2027 lock-in	₩107.4T (~$80B, +783% YoY) OP — highest quarterly profit of any tech company; shares fell on the day (flat chip margins flagged); KED: ~80% of 2027 memory output locked via LTAs
10/11-13	CXMT 4F² server DRAM (VERIFY node 1)	first 4F² vertical-transistor product = server DDR5 RDIMM due by year-end; cell footprint -1/3 on paper, no speeds/capacities; TweakTown math: ~2 years ahead of Samsung; KOSPI -16%/SKH -25% in the week — the China supply tail aims at the profit pool
10/16	Memory drawdown scoreboard	from peaks: MU -19.9% (10/1), SNDK -31.1% (9/22), SKHY ADR -31.3% (9/9), WDC/STX -16~-18% on the week; a multiple event against 75-80% LTA-locked 2027 — verdict at Korea's full-Q3 prints
10/16	SK hynix @ OCP 2026	256GB 2nd-gen CXL 3.2 module (2x bandwidth, -30% power) + "beyond HBM" portfolio (OCP summit 10/12-15); Q3 call 10/28; DigiTimes: Rubin stays mostly 12-Hi HBM4 vs 8-Hi reports; Maeil: Q4 server conventional DRAM contracts +up to 15%
10/15-17	MU Taichung AATT2 + Netlist	2nd AI-memory packaging plant opens with 2027 HBM capacity fully sold out; Taiwan union demands 15% of operating profit (strike vote pending); Netlist $600M/5-yr patent license (event ~10/6, weekend law-firm pickup); MU -30% from peak, out of $1T club
10/20	4Q26 DRAM +20% QoQ (TrendForce)	Contract prices seen rising ~20% QoQ in 4Q26 despite converging gains; AI demand + tight supply support the outlook — consistent with Maeil's 'server conventional DRAM up to +15%'. Price data keeps diverging from memory-equity pricing (KOSPI six-month low 10/20, pair at 2-3x P/E per BofA/Morgan Stanley relays; Nomura Buy: Samsung W670,000 / SKH W4.7M, shortage through 2028)
10/17-20	NVHBM base dies -> TSMC 3nm; CXMT post-IPO print	NVIDIA reportedly asks Samsung, SK hynix AND Micron to build NVHBM base dies on TSMC 3nm (Seoul Economic Daily via TrendForce 10/19; Tom's HW: Samsung foundry yields fall short) — the only logic layer of the HBM stack unifies at TSMC (MEDIUM evidence, pending 10/28). CXMT first post-IPO quarter: record Q3 revenue, slowing growth, up to $19.8B nine-month net income guided + buyback; shares -7.8% Monday; Chinese phone makers recycling used DRAM amid shortage (Chosunbiz)
10/21-22	China-fab upgrades; Taiwan's first chip strike; MU fires at 4F²	Reuters exclusive (10/21): Samsung and SK hynix upgrading China plants to more advanced nodes — relays point to advanced NAND, motive: counter CXMT/YMTC (authorized-capacity maximization under export curbs). Taiwan's first-ever chip-industry strike began at Micron (10/22 morning, one-day; Taichung union signed a profit-sharing deal 10/21, another union walked — Reuters). MU tech symposium: DDR6 2x bandwidth / LPDDR6 +35% eff. / 1δ node / vHBM vertical / G11 NAND >400 layers (Wccftech), CTO-tier comments call the rival 4F² vertical-transistor design 'fundamentally problematic', betting on 3D DRAM 2027 — a time bet against CXMT's 12/31 4F² RDIMM deadline. SKH pre-10/28: Citi keeps ₩3.0M target (relay); BigGo single-source: ₩40T buyback completed, 3.3% shares to cancel.
10/22-24	Solidigm IPO scrapped; YMTC's DRAM second front; 4F² alignment complete	SK hynix discontinued the review of Solidigm's US IPO and pre-IPO fundraising (10/23; Korean duplicate-listing concerns + market turbulence; capital allocation on the 10/28 agenda; SKHY ADR +4.05% to $137.02 after trading -3% intraday) — Dalian is Solidigm's only NAND base, with a 240+ layer upgrade pending BIS; China is 40-45% of SKH NAND output (TrendForce). Counterpoint (via TechPowerUp/TweakTown 10/23): YMTC has run ~5k wpm of 16Gb LPDDR5X (7,500 MT/s) at Fab 2 since Oct 2025, now prepping 9,600 MT/s at Fab 3 on VCT 4F² + Xtacking 4.0 — a second Chinese DRAM front. Alignment map complete: MU publicly abandons 4F² ('fundamental problems', 6F² until 3D DRAM 2027; Wedbush frames it as a formal pivot) vs Samsung CTO confirming 4F2 VCT development at SEDEX (no timetable). BofA (10/23): Korean duo likely to boost shareholder returns; SKH ₩40T buyback completed (3.3% to cancel), Samsung ₩35T near its end — Chosunbiz flags the buyer vacuum (KOSPI -3.52% Thursday, +0.30% Friday; SKH +4.42%). Bernstein: 'slowing price hikes misread as topping'; MS: P/E 2-3x, cycle intact. Samsung Xi'an 'Monami': 286L V9 conversion, 5k→40k wpm by Dec 2027.
10/22-25	WDC FQ1'27 print (Thu after close; caught up Sunday) + STX up next	Revenue $4.38B (+55% YoY), EPS $4.63, dividend +17%, Q2 revenue guided up to +72% — yet the stock fell -6.43% Thursday (broad selloff day) and -2.97% Friday to $343.67 (Yahoo bars): the street split on a PRICE-DRIVEN beat (analysts flag rising capex + potential supply increases; IBD 'beat, why falling'), Wedbush defending. Friday's tape diverged: MU +2.46%, SKHY +4.05% vs SNDK -1.82%, STX -1.81%. Seagate reports Monday 10/27 (Yahoo preview: 'blockbuster AI data demand vs oversupply fears'). Korean side: ad-hoc-news (Rafael Mueller) frames 10/28 as the real bill after the Solidigm scrap; Yonhap confirms Samsung+SKH both report this week.
10/25-26	Kioxia stake-sale dividend report; HBM quote tiering; PC demand destruction	Korean newspaper (via Korea Herald 10/26 08:59 KST, Bloomberg/SA relays): SK hynix weighs selling its Kioxia stake, returning ~80% of gains (~₩16T / ~$12.1B) as a special dividend — two days before the 10/28 call with capital allocation on the agenda; Monday intraday: SKH opened +2~3.6% and faded to ~+0.5% (₩1,284,000), Kioxia -2.3% (¥12,460, the overhang read), Samsung -1.2%, KOSPI -1.1%; duo -30% from highs (Chosun). Wccftech relay of an 'expert interview' (single-source framing): HBM quotes ~$4.50 (Samsung) vs $4.00 (MU) vs $3.60-3.80 (SKH) — up to 25% premium attributed to supply assurance + in-house foundry (HBM4 mid-to-high $4s ≈ 3x HBM3E; prior ~80% 4nm HBM4 yield estimate); TechPowerUp 10/19 corroborates the NVHBM base-die-at-TSMC line. Demand side: global PC shipments -21% as memory prices surge (24/7 Saturday, Seoul Economic Daily Sunday) — consumer-side demand destruction gets a hard print. CXMT reportedly turns away Apple and Taiwanese server buyers on Beijing's self-sufficiency drive (Wccftech/BigGo relay) — conventional DRAM supply tightens another notch. Korean Q3 previews: combined OP ₩184T (~$139B, BusinessKorea — Samsung prelim ₩195T/₩107.4T +782.5%, SKH revenue ~₩98T forecast); Samsung 2027 supply mostly LTA-locked (sammyfans 10/19, consistent with KED ~80%). STX reports Tue 10/27 (EPS consensus $7.42; MS target $1,187→$1,200, BofA $1,200).
10/26-29	SK hynix Q3 record quarter; sold out through 2029; ₩100T return; Samsung detail + STX print	SK hynix Q3 (10/28 call): revenue ₩104.62T ($77.99B, +328% YoY, first quarter above ₩100T), OP ₩83.33T (+632%), net ₩39.78T, OPM 80%; CFO Kim Woo-hyun: DRAM+HBM 'effectively sold out through 2029', supply constraint projected through 2030, LTAs + contracts under discussion cover three years of expected output. Shareholder return: ₩100T ($75B) plan = ≥₩30T cash dividends + >₩60T buybacks-and-cancellations (incl. completed ₩40T pending cancellation; Q3 board approved ₩14T dividends at ₩20,000/share + fresh ₩20T buyback, ₩10T of which is employee comp EXCLUDED from the tally — effective caliber ~₩90T); Kioxia stake sale/₩16T special dividend NOT confirmed. Market: SKH Seoul +10.89% ₩1,487,000, SKHY ADR +13.30% $164.70, KOSPI +6.63% 6,012.44; MU +5.86% $983.23, SNDK +7.66% $1,404.77, WDC +4.08%, STX +4.51% $697.97. Seagate FQ1'27 (10/27 AH): revenue +61% YoY (~$4.2B), record $1.5B FCF, guidance beat — but after-hours drop on margin-growth questions + next-day downgrades (TradingView), recovered Wednesday. Samsung Q3 detail (10/29 KST, post-window): record revenue/OP both >₩100T (Yonhap), company sees 2027 AI memory demand further outstripping supply (TradingKey), but Bloomberg flags chip profit missing estimates; intraday -6.3% ₩226,750, KOSPI -2.91% (post-window snapshots). Share-narrative readings: Korea Herald analysis suggests Samsung HBM revenue may have overtaken SK hynix in October; Benzinga expert: 'Samsung will lead HBM in 2027' (analysis calibers, unconfirmed).
10/29-30	Samsung call corroborates the anchor; SNDK's +378% quarter; NAND's internal bifurcation	Samsung Q3 call (10/29 KST): memory shortage to get WORSE in 2027 and persist through 2028; 2027 HBM supply effectively sold out with LTAs locking up to 70% of capacity (~10 customers); HBM4 sales tripled QoQ to 60% of HBM sales mix (HBM4E well reviewed); AI demand expanding from HBM to SSDs ('fundamentally reshaping the memory business model'); AI-semi capex ramping — yet the stock fell: shareholder-return details SLIP TO JANUARY (vs SKH's ₩100T), -4.13% Thursday + intraday -5.82% Friday (₩218,500); UBS cut KOSPI target 8,000→7,500; CryptoBriefing argues Samsung's HBM revenue already overtook SKH in Q3 (analysis caliber, unconfirmed). SanDisk FQ1'27 (10/29 ~20:00 GMT): revenue +378% YoY, data center +61%, EPS beat consensus by $2.36, guidance raised, 8-for-1 stock split — fifth straight quarter above own forecast; AH dipped then recovered (mixed calibers). Bifurcation inside NAND: TrendForce (10/28) 512Gb TLC spot -9.19% on China phone discounting vs enterprise strength; Solidigm weighs a $45B US NAND plant tied to the Dalian BIS approval (Bloomberg/Chosunbiz 10/28). Friday Asia: KOSPI -5.13% (sidecar in futures), SKH -8.33% ₩1,399,000 (giving back ~2/3 of Wednesday's surge), Kioxia -8.31% into its FQ2 print (~14:00 CST 10/30, street +447% revenue).
10/30-31	Kioxia FQ2 lands the first official 'price-hike deceleration' print; memory complex cranks lower	Kioxia FQ2 (Fri 14:00 CST): revenue ¥2.48T (+40.3% QoQ, +453.2% YoY), non-GAAP OP ¥1.9883T (80.2% margin; IFRS ¥1.9947T/80.4%) — single-quarter OP >2x the prior FULL fiscal year (¥870.4B), beat guidance across the board; FIRST-EVER ¥90 interim dividend (payable Dec 8). But Q3 cumulative revenue guidance ¥6.7472T implies +0.8% QoQ with OP below consensus — 'sold-out books meet a slower price engine' (ad-hoc-news; Seoul Economic Daily: outlook misses as price surge cools; Moomoo: OP +2,181.1% YoY, 'guidance perplexed'). Stock -7.14% ¥13,470; overnight PTS ~-7% to ~¥12,500 (note.com). Friday US closes in sympathy: SNDK -13.47% $1,150.89 (two days -18%, ~-39% from 9/22 peak $1,887 — its own beat/split/raised guide erased), WDC -7.41% $366.11, STX -7.98% $644.58 (below pre-print level), MU -5.30% $884.74 (-19% from 9/30 record $1,097.40). Asia closes: SKH Seoul -7.08% ₩1,418,000, SKHY ADR -7.95% $149.21, Samsung -3.02% ₩225,000, KOSPI -3.48% 5,730.74. Supply side stepping UP: digitimes headline (single source) — Samsung+SKH to invest ₩110T combined as the memory supply boost slips to 2028; Seeking Alpha (10/31): 'sold out through 2029, but capex is now the focus.'
10/31-11/2	Kioxia extends the deceleration print; the 11.6pp JV gap; Korea's record exports; CXMT's 4F² clock	Kioxia Monday: Tokyo traded down 11-15% intraday to ~¥11,695-11,985, the lowest since May (TradingKey), after Bloomberg's 'demand leveling off' verdict — Q3 OP guide ¥2T vs street ¥2.35T; NAND ASP +mid-20% QoQ last quarter vs +70% prior (Japan Times/Bloomberg); PTS Friday -7~-11%. The adjudication instrument: Kioxia guides Oct-Dec revenue ¥2.480T→¥2.500T (+0.8% QoQ) while JV partner SanDisk — which sources substantially all flash wafers from the same fabs — guides $11.031B→$12.400B (+12.4% mid), an 11.6pp gap between two books on one supply chain (TECHi calc); note.com: 4x P/E for peak profits. Counter-prints: SNDK -13.47% Friday ($1,150.89, -39% from 9/22 peak) but inched higher overnight; SKH +2.54% ₩1,454,000, KOSPI +1.63%, US futures +0.4/+0.8% — 'NAND deceleration' priced separately from 'memory top'. Korea October exports (official, Sunday): $115.28B +93.7% YoY (fastest since Jan 1974; Sept +83.7%), semiconductors +259.4%, tracking $1T annual (Investing/JKN); Altman's Seoul weekend: 50 Samsung presidents at Yongin 10/31 (no supply deal announced; Stargate memory LOI since Oct 2025; OpenAI demand projected up to 900k DRAM wpm/month) + SK's Chey with SKH/SKT execs; Altman Thursday: home-PC DRAM 'should be in a data center'. CXMT (company claim, Pandaily/SED EN 11/1): 4F² samples 'validated', first shipments by year-end — 12/31 clock on schedule vs MU CTO's 'myth' framing. KB Securities Monday: duo at 'second bottom of W-shaped recovery, rally from November'. Next: AAPL 11/2 margin language; MU December call LTA wording; November exports.
11/2-11/3	Apple pays the memory bill in its own filing; memory complex prints new lows the same session	Apple FQ4 (11/2 AH, first Ternus print): revenue $114.5B record beat, net income $30.7B — but September GM 47.9% (prior 50.1%) with December guide at 45-46%; CFO Parekh names memory costs as the main margin pressure (MarketWatch call coverage); Ternus: memory costs keep rising 'in the December quarter and beyond,' dodging the price-hike question (MacRumors); inventory +154% to $14.5B = deliberate pre-buying (Yahoo/TrendForce); Services slowing to +8-9%, China/iPad miss; AH fell first (CNBC) then minor gains late (Yahoo 22:41 GMT) — tonight's open is the first real pricing. The tape traded the opposite: MU -5.78% $833.59, SNDK -6.59% $1,075.08 (through Friday's low $1,150.89), WDC -7.52% $338.59, STX -7.88% $593.76 — all new lows; SOX -3.37% to 10,328 (through both 10/22's 10,732 and Friday's 10,689). Asia Tuesday (intraday ~11:45 CST): KOSPI -3.44% (Monday's +2.24% bounce fully unwound), SKH -5.16% 1,396,000, Samsung -3.93% — KJD attributes to 'AI infrastructure spending concerns.' Kioxia closed Monday -15.78% at 11,345 (at session lows, worse than the intraday range); Tokyo Electron rose on a strong outlook (Arab News) — the NAND blowup and equipment strength decoupling within one Tokyo market. Sell-side defense forming at the lows: Nomura 'fundamental mispricing' (SKHY pre-market +4-5% before fading), KB 'W-shaped second bottom.' The mismatch: filing-grade demand confirmation (deepest-pocketed buyer pre-buying) vs new lows pricing 'profitability doubt' — adjudicated by November Korean exports and MU's December call (track-record 2026-11-03 #3, verdict 12/1).
11/3-11/4	AMD/ANET/SMCI answer the "demand top"; memory complex rebounds; Kioxia re-tests April lows	AMD Q3 (Tue AH): revenue $13.4B (+45%, beat $13.1B), EPS $2.09, DC $8.5B (+97% YoY, 63% of revenue), Q4 guided to a record $17B (+66% YoY, +27% QoQ — a sequential ACCELERATION); CFO Jean Hu: 'looking ahead of 2027, data center will be more than 80% of total company revenue' — the Intel DC +78% mirror branch lands (CNBC drew the comparison; Reuters: the guide 'eases AI spending fears'); +7-8% AH; same night ANET +59% (biggest since 2014 IPO, Barron's) and SMCI Q2 above consensus (Reuters). Memory rebounded Tuesday: SNDK +4.79% $1,126.52 (24/7's '+7%' was intraday), MU +2.58% $855.10, WDC +2.59%, STX +2.12% — 'rebound from Kioxia selloff'; AAPL's first post-earnings session just -1.90% $331.90 (the memory bill priced mildly; Barron's: markets and Street 'poles apart' on MU). Korea final Tuesday close (worse than intraday snapshots): KOSPI -3.60% 5,648.79, SKH -5.03% ₩1,398,000, Samsung -4.15% ₩219,500. Japan CLOSED Tuesday (Culture Day — resolving the missing Kioxia/Nikkei reads); Wednesday (post-window): Kioxia -13% intraday to ¥9,873 (lowest since April, TradingKey; four-session decline) before narrowing to ~¥10,030; Nikkei -3%+, KOSPI -3.3%, SKH -5.4% on election-night Democratic gains. MU's Taiwan strike: a 'handful' of workers (Reuters), one union settled, another proceeded — record profits vs picket line, no supply impact evidenced. Supply-side: Samsung's second Taylor (TX) fab to make HBM base dies for AMD/Nvidia (Reuters citing Maeil, reported-level; Yahoo Market Chatter lists AMD+Broadcom — customer list discrepancy noted).
11/4-11/7	The memory massacre: -33~-42% drawdowns against a stacking buyer-evidence chain	Wed: MU -6.99% $814.90, SNDK -7.92% $1,036.99 on 'election + memory price worries' (24/7); Kioxia -5.4%. Thu: the rout — MU -17.45% $656.39 (-33% from the 10/28 peak $983), SNDK -22.27% $806.43 (-42%), WDC -17.43%, STX -16.34%, as Rep. Ansari's AI-pause/ASI-ban call extended the selloff (Yahoo); Kioxia -13.1%; SOX -12.26%. Fri Asia: SKH -10.44% ₩1,132,000 (-25.8% from 10/29's ₩1,526,000), Samsung -6.35% ₩188,700, Kioxia -8.71% ¥8,511 (-41% from the 10/29 peak in ONE week); KOSPI -6.02% with a circuit breaker at -8~-9% intraday. Fri US: MU +5.12% $690.00, SNDK +3.55% $835.00 (WDC -1.44%/STX -1.19% lagged). AGAINST the tape, the buyer-side chain stacked: TrendForce (10/27) — NVIDIA's Rubin Ultra shifts 12-Hi HBM4E → 8-Hi HBM4 (bandwidth -13%); FourWeekMBA relay: HBM prices seen +121%; scanx (single source, unverified): Samsung expected to hike ~20% again in January AND Samsung/SKH/MU sued over DRAM price-fixing; Counterpoint/Yonhap: Samsung retains DRAM #1 in Q3, SKH narrows; Businesskorea: CXMT claims 4F² 'verification' complete with mass-production doubts in the headline itself; Dan Niles (TIKR): CXMT targeting 20% share by 2028; Korea weekend: Hana Financial 'overdone — buy the dip' (bloomingbit), Asia Economic asks 'US DC rules won't shake Samsung-SKH?' The fork (political beta vs cycle top vs China supply) is maximally stretched; adjudicators: NVDA 11/17, December contract prices, CXMT 12/31, November Korean exports ~12/1 (track-record 11-07 #3).
11/7-11/9	The weekend memory file: buyer rewrites the roadmap; the China-supply leg gets near-term counter-evidence	The Information (Fri 11/6, relayed by Reuters/Bloomberg): TSMC weighing advanced memory and drafting 3D DRAM plans at Nvidia's request (led by advanced-packaging VP Hsu Kuo-chin; new fabs or buy-and-convert); TSM +6.34% Friday; Sunday: 'reaffirmed foundry focus' (report-level non-denial). Counterpoint (via Wccftech, 11/6): CXMT Q3 DRAM share slipped to 9% QoQ (+4pp YoY) as Samsung ramped aggressively and the market pivoted to HBM — near-term counter-evidence to the 'Chinese supply flood' leg; Samsung kept the Q3 DRAM crown, SKH narrowing; Q3 industry DRAM revenue +369% YoY (Electronics Weekly). TokenPost (11/8): memory suppliers may set Q4 revenue records as HBM prices rise. TIKR: SKH ADR -57% from high with half of 2027-28 capacity contracted. SKH America file: Hyaico US investment arm ($10B, 11/4); NY expansion snagged by US export-license delays tied to China ops (Reuters/Yahoo 11/3); Yonhap 11/9: expanding US workforce. DRAM ETFs bled $7B in a week (Benzinga).
11/9-11/10	Named sellers vs named buyers: Morgan Stanley's '2028 earnings cliff' lands as target prices on a +6%/+11% memory repair day	Morgan Stanley report 'Memory semiconductors—key issues after the U.S. midterm elections' (rel. 11/9, via ChosunBiz EN 11/10): SKH target cut ~38% to ₩1.6M (from ₩2.6M), Samsung ~19% to ₩309,000 (from ₩381,000) — tightness easing from late 2027, 2028 DC growth slowing to 9%, 'the real warning is the 2028 earnings cliff.' The same session: MU +6% (bulls: bargain valuation + buyback firepower + 26 take-or-pay SCAs per Yahoo), STX/WDC +11%, SNDK up, SKHY ADR +5.5% (still -57% from high, half of 2027-28 capacity contracted — TIKR). Buyers with names: Bernstein +259% upside on SNDK; Mizuho 'memory upside has room, equipment is next'; KOSPI below 4x forward P/E with Daishin at 7,100; DS Investment holds SKH ₩1.91M on a ₩290T 2029 OP scenario. Kioxia: next-gen NAND samples shipped (Kitakami); ORIX H1 took a ¥538.7B Kioxia revaluation gain and warned of ~¥190B Q3 loss; CSOP's 1.25x Kioxia leveraged product lists on HKEX 11/10. YMTC 4th Wuhan fab targets 300+ layer NAND (single source).
11/10-11/11	The market votes against the named seller; equipment moves to the front of the chain	Korea Tuesday close: KOSPI +4.39% to 5,239.13 (a +4.6% intraday leg tripped a buy sidecar; Samsung+SKH added $73B of market cap — FourWeekMBA), SKH +6.69% to ₩1,212,000, Samsung +4.74% to ₩198,900 — within 24 hours of Morgan Stanley's cuts (SKH -38% to ₩1.6M, Samsung -19% to ₩309,000, '2028 earnings cliff'); Kioxia +9.23% to ¥9,068 on no guidance change (Startup Fortune); the SKHY ADR fell -3.51% as US memory names gave back Monday's repair (SNDK -2.99%, MU -1.10%) — the Seoul-vs-US sentiment gap is itself a volatility reading. Equipment: TrendForce (11/10) — Samsung and SK hynix reportedly racing to pre-order ASML EUV tools worth up to ₩20T each ahead of a flagged 2027-28 supply gap (NeoTeo same line) — the DRAM capex arms race pivoting from capacity to tool lock-up. Google's TPU 8i Max doubling HBM bandwidth adds a second HBM demand engine outside Nvidia. Wednesday post-window: SKH +2.6%, Kioxia +3.0%.
11/11-11/12	The 48-hour re-rating: MS flips 48 hours after its -38% cut, against BofA's supercycle-through-2028	Wednesday closes: MU +11.89% $811.30, SNDK +13.69% $977.69, STX +9%, SKHY ADR +9.71% $142.25 (Seoul SKH +5.36% W1,277,000 / Samsung +3.57% W206,000; KOSPI +2.60% 5,375.36, three-day +7.1%). Four-layer driver: CoreWeave CEO 'AI demand outpaces world capacity' (Benzinga); Morgan Stanley's 'risk-reward improved' flip 48 hours after the -38% '2028 cliff' cut (TradingKey); BofA supercycle through 2028; data chain: Q3 industry DRAM revenue ~$200B (+369%), Citi's 3.8% supply gap, '2027: even money can't buy goods' (Fortune) + smartphone makers turning to refurbished memory chips (Global Sources) — consumer-side demand destruction in industrial evidence. YMTC targets a Shanghai IPO in early 2027 (Startup Fortune). Falsification line: MU >$800 / SNDK >$950 through the NVDA risk-off = 11/07 (MU $656/SNDK $806) stands as the political-beta bottom; price evidence arrives with December contract pricing + Korea's 12/1 exports.
11/12-11/13	The levels' first test after the re-rating: MU $798.44 (-1.59%, lightly through $800) and SNDK $937.46 (-4.11%, through $950) in an NVDA -4.34% tape — but +22%/+16% off the 11/07 lows ($656/$806); STX -1.19%, WDC -0.67%. Supply side prints three same-direction lines: SKH HBM4 yield tops 70% with Samsung expanding advanced packaging (digitimes, Sherri Wang; Chosunbiz same caliber); Goldman sees HBM average prices doubling next year (via BigGo); memory now 54% of low-end smartphone BOM with recycled/low-spec DRAM emerging (BigGo) — quantified consumer-side crowding-out. Seoul Thursday: SKH -1.80% W1,254,000, Samsung +0.97% W208,000 (split on NVDA turmoil, JoongAng); Friday opened strong on AMAT (KOSPI +3%, duo +3%+ early per TradingKey) then faded (~11:30 CST: Samsung +0.72%, SKH -0.08%). Kioxia Thursday -2.83% Y9,300, Friday +1.72%. Political overhang: Sen. Cotton demands CXMT blacklisting (CNBC); Chosunbiz: 'US export-control risk, not the Huang scandal, is the bigger variable over Korea AI memory.'
11/13-11/14	Friday's risk-off broke both gates: MU -2.52% $778.31 (through $800), SNDK -5.59% $885.01 (through $950), WDC -5.00%, STX -3.09% — clean attribution 'NVDA turmoil + inflation fears' (BigGo), NOT contract-price deterioration; StreetInsider's 'Kioxia pricing warning' headline traced to the 11/2 guidance line re-crawled (trap logged). Only +19%/+10% above the 11/07 lows ($656/$806) — the 11-12 #2 item (verdict 11/19) turns negative with two trading days left. Supply side: KeyBanc (via TipRanks) says Rubin ramps slower than expected — limited SK hynix HBM4 supply + overheating/yield, GB300 offsetting; consistent with SKH's >70% yield: the bottleneck is wafer allocation, not yield. MLex (Sat 08:09 CST): Samsung/SKH/Micron jointly argue 'AI boom, not conspiracy' in the DRAM antitrust suit — first filing-grade defense; December contract prices + Korea's November exports (12/1) are the empirical judges. Seoul Friday: KOSPI -0.98% 5,290.53 (an opening +3% fully erased), SKH -3.03% W1,216,000, Samsung -0.96% W206,000; Korean retail cash+margin debt -$17.5B in a month (KED). Kioxia -2.25% Y9,091; Toshiba's record Y2.5T interim profit came with the Kioxia revaluation gain halving q/q (BigGo).

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